New data analysis provides baseline for weighing options on unauthorized immigration, say experts

(OSV News) — New research shows the number of “undocumented immigrants” — if defined as those without long-term authorization to reside in the U.S., including those granted short-term legal status — reached an estimated 14.6 million in 2024, an “increasingly settled” population that reflects shifts in migration patterns.

A large portion of this group — about 37% — have liminal legal status, such as temporary authorization for humanitarian reasons. But an accurate analysis of the data is essential in formulating effective immigration policies, said experts.

“The unauthorized population has long been misunderstood, mischaracterized and often maligned,” said Ruth Wasem, senior fellow at Cleveland State University’s Levin School of Urban Affairs. “The results are poor policy decisions.”

Wasem was part of a May 5 online panel hosted by the Center for Migration Studies of New York. The CMS gathering provided updated estimates on the cohort, with the data drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.

Joining Wasem were Ryan Allen, associate dean for research with expertise in housing and community development at the University of Minnesota; CMS senior visiting fellow Robert Warren; Phillip Connor, research fellow at Princeton University’s Center for Migration and Development; and CMS senior research and policy analyst Matthew Lisiecki, who moderated the discussion.

The estimated data is searchable at data.cmsny.org through a collaboration between CMS and the University of Minnesota. A forthcoming article by Allen and Warren is also set to appear in the Journal on Migration and Human Security.

Allen noted that the data included a “necessary lag,” since 2024 was the last year for reliable figures from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Given “substantial changes” in both federal policy on, and patterns of, migration over the past year, he said, “the landscape today may look really quite different” than that in 2024.

Those changes include the current Trump administration’s sweeping efforts to curtail immigration to the U.S. through mass deportations, third-country removals, removal of previously authorized deportation protections, and other means.

Warren explained that the data was also adjusted for undercounts, noting that those arriving between 2021-2024 were “very difficult to enumerate” since “they were bused all over the place” and sent to “shelters, hotels” and “temporary housing.”

Despite those methodological challenges, Allen and his fellow presenters noted key shifts in the data up to 2024 that bear consideration.

Allen said the topline number of 14.6 million “represents a significant increase” of “about 4.4 million more undocumented immigrants relative to 2020” and of “2.4 million” from 2023 to 2024.

That contrasts with a decrease of about 1.5 million between 2014 and 2020, he said.

Connor highlighted that as of mid-2024, “37% of the broader undocumented population had some kind of temporary permission to stay in the U.S., whereas the remainder had no temporary permission or no legal status.”

“Undocumented Mexican immigrants are about 5.1 million of the total 14.6 million,” explained Allen. He added that population increased 15% “by about 650,000 between 2020 and 2024.”

Yet despite the increase, “there are about 1 million fewer Mexican undocumented immigrants in 2024 than there were in 2014,” said Allen.

More recent growth among the overall cohort “has been driven by increasing numbers from Central and South America,” he said.

Some of the “fastest-growing undocumented populations” in the U.S. from 2020-2024 came from “Venezuela, Haiti, Ecuador and Nicaragua,” Allen said.

The overall CMS-defined undocumented population in 2024 was roughly split into thirds in terms of their length of U.S. residency, he said. Allen noted about 36% of the total had been in the U.S. less than five years; some 30% between five and 14 years; and 34% for 15 years or longer.

Over 80% of that last group are age 35 and older, with 60% reporting the ability to speak English “well or very well,” he said.

Those living in the U.S. between five and 14 years have “the highest levels of educational attainment,” with “nearly half” saying they had “at least some college” studies, said Allen.

Labor force participation (73% employed and 5% unemployed in 2024) is high among undocumented immigrants as a whole, he said, with the rate increasing with the number of years of residence. In comparison, 61% of the overall U.S. population was employed and 3% unemployed in 2024.

Wasem said the research under discussion in the CMS webinar “provides solid analysis of empirical data to enable policymakers to have a meaningful discussion about the options to address unauthorized migration to the United States.”

She also said the research “shows how a preoccupation with border security and enforcement has not been particularly effective.”

The data can be used to more strategically address both “foreign nationals who posted national security risk” and the “humanitarian concerns” that drive individuals to flee their countries of origin for liminal immigration status in the U.S.

Ultimately, she said, “it’s legal immigration reform that we need to be talking about.”

Wasem said her forthcoming analysis of 20th-century U.S. immigration policy has identified “family ties, needed economic skills and humanitarian relief” as the nation’s historic “ideology of the deserving” for immigration authorization.

She said the 2024 data — which along with labor participation shows “over 2 million have strong family ties in the U.S.” — aligns with those three aspects, she said. Wasem echoed panelists’ highlighting of immigration processing backlogs that have left “millions of people waiting who are eligible for lawful permanent resident status, or eligible for asylum or refugee status.”

“Great research, important to the policy process, shifts our emphasis away from just talking about border security,” said Wasem. “Let’s talk about immigration reform.”

Catholic social teaching on immigration balances three interrelated principles — the right of persons to migrate in order to sustain their lives and those of their families, the right of a country to regulate its borders and control immigration, and a nation’s duty to regulate its borders with justice and mercy.

While often used interchangeably, the terms “migrant” and “refugee” are separately defined under international law, with refugees specifically protected due to perilous conditions — such as war or persecution — that make returning to the country of origin impossible. No uniform definitions of “migrant” or “forced migration” exist at the international level, according to the United Nations. However, migrants are nonetheless protected as human persons under international human rights law.

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