Economic concerns likely factor in victory for Trump, as Catholic vote shifts in his favor

WASHINGTON (OSV News) — Economic concerns among voters likely played a key role in former President Donald Trump’s defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris, analysts told OSV News. Early exit polls indicated economic concerns ranked among the top issues for voters, and that Catholic voters may have undergone a significant shift to the right since 2020.

According to multiple projections, Trump, a Republican, was elected to a second term in the Oval Office Nov. 5, four years after he lost his run for a second consecutive term.

Spokespersons for the Harris and Trump campaigns said the vice president called the president-elect Nov. 6 to concede and to congratulate him.

A spokesperson for the Harris campaign said the pair “discussed the importance of a peaceful transfer of power and being a president for all Americans.” A spokesperson for Trump said he “acknowledged Vice President Harris on her strength, professionalism, and tenacity throughout the campaign, and both leaders agreed on the importance of unifying the country.”

In a concession speech Nov. 6 at Howard University in Washington, D.C., Harris said, “A fundamental principle of American democracy is that when we lose an election, we accept the results. That principle, as much as any other, distinguishes democracy from monarchy or tyranny, and anyone who seeks the public trust must honor it.”

“I am here to say, while I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign — the fight: the fight for freedom, for opportunity, for fairness and the dignity of all people, a fight for the ideals at the heart of our nation, the ideals that reflect America at our best,” Harris said. “That is a fight I will never give up.”

John White, a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, told OSV News the election result “validates James Carville’s famous maxim, ‘It’s the economy, stupid!'”

“While democracy was named in the exit polls as the most important issue for voters, the economy ranked a close second,” White said. “Inflation is a job-killer and it killed Kamala Harris’ job prospects.”

Trump’s victory, White said, defied some conventional election metrics.

“The striking thing to me is how the results contradicted the signs that Harris was on track to win,” White said. “Namely, the money she raised; the crowd sizes; the things that Donald Trump said and did; his abject character; and the modest leads that she had in the polls. Once again, Trump over-performed in every way possible.”

Early data suggests that Catholic voters swung back to support Trump after narrowly supporting President Joe Biden, the nation’s second Catholic president, in 2020. An early exit poll by NBC accessed Nov. 6 indicated Catholics supported Trump over Harris 58%-40%.

“His overwhelming lead in the Catholic vote cannot be overlooked,” White said. “While his performance with white Catholics was not surprising, his performance with Hispanics was the best since George W. Bush in 2004. The Hispanic vote is no longer guaranteed for Democrats and the party has a lot of work to do with this group and others.”

Margaret Susan Thompson, an associate professor of history at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship & Public Affairs, who has studied the intersection of religion and politics in the U.S., stressed that early exit poll data is preliminary and subject to change, but several such polls indicate Catholic voters did break for Trump — although the exact margin, and their motivation, requires further study.

“Is the relationship between being a Catholic and voting for a particular candidate, a causal one?” she said of what will be examined as the data becomes clear. “That is, I am voting for this candidate because of my Catholic beliefs, my faith has shaped my vote, or I happen to be Catholic and I happen to vote for this candidate, but there’s no direct relationship between the two?”

Ethnicity and age are examples of two other demographics that could intersect with Catholic voters’ choices, Thompson told OSV News.

“Catholics, to some extent, may have broken more for Trump than the general public, this time, depending upon which exit poll you look at, but they’re still as divided as the American public,” she said of early data, adding that their voting behavior might not ultimately be “all that different from the public at large.”

Early data indicates Trump might be on track to win the popular vote for the first time in his three presidential bids. Although Trump was elected in 2016 after securing the requisite number of votes in the Electoral College, his rival that year, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, received more votes from the general electorate. Trump lost both the popular and Electoral College votes to Biden in 2020.

Economic concerns weren’t the only hurdle for Harris, another analyst suggested, but her role in Biden’s administration, who has had low approval ratings.

James Patterson, chair of the politics department at Ave Maria University in Naples, Florida, told OSV News that the 2024 outcome makes Trump’s 2020 loss seem “now like something of a fluke of the pandemic, rapidly changing voting methods in response to it, and Trump running a bad campaign” at that time.

“It is hard to remember, but after 2022, the leading GOP presidential nominee was Ron DeSantis,” Patterson said, arguing that after criminal prosecutions of Trump for his role in seeking to overturn the 2020 election results and other alleged misconduct, “the GOP rallied to Trump much more than they did before.”

“As for what Trump changed in his campaign this year, he was the only candidate talking about issues,” Patterson said. “He often exaggerates or misrepresents facts, but at least he brought up issues important to Americans, like inflation and immigration.”

As a member of the incumbent administration, Patterson argued, Harris “was stuck.”

“She could not be the incumbent because of Americans overwhelmingly thinking America is on the wrong track,” he said. “She could not even run as herself because she had taken some extreme positions.”

Catholic lobbying groups that backed one of the candidates also reacted to the results with praise or concern. Brian Burch, president of CatholicVote, a group that supported Trump, said in a statement that Harris “exposed the fact that the Democratic Party has a big Catholic problem, with the Republican realignment now incorporating Hispanics, union members, and working class voters that had reliably voted for Democrats in the past.”

Meanwhile, Denise Murphy McGraw, national chair of Catholics Vote Common Good, which supported Harris, thanked the vice president and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz for “a positive and inclusive campaign that was willing to bring together and listen to all voices, including those of faith voters.”

“We wish Donald Trump well and look forward to him unifying the country to begin the healing we so richly desire,” she said in a statement.

The president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops issued a statement calling for prayer and unity. Archbishop Timothy P. Broglio of the U.S. Archdiocese for the Military Services USA said in a Nov. 6 statement, “I congratulate President-elect Trump, as well as the national, state and local officials who campaigned to represent the people. Now, we move from campaigning to governing.”

The archbishop said that Americans are “fortunate to live in a democracy,” and that “we rejoice in our ability to transition peacefully from one government to the next.”

He said that “the Catholic Church is not aligned with any political party, and neither is the bishops’ conference.”

“No matter who occupies the White House or holds the majority on Capitol Hill, the Church’s teachings remain unchanged, and we bishops look forward to working with the people’s elected representatives to advance the common good of all,” said Archbishop Broglio. “As Christians, and as Americans, we have the duty to treat each other with charity, respect, and civility, even if we may disagree on how to carry out matters of public policy.”

Likewise, Cardinal Wilton D. Gregory of Washington said in a statement that “as our nation prepares to take a new direction in governance, it is vitally important for each of us to remember that, as people of faith and goodwill, we are called to work together to seek truth, justice, and peace in our homes, in our communities, and in our nation.”

“Some people today are breathing a sigh of relief at the outcome of our national, state and local elections, even as others are experiencing anxiety about our future,” Cardinal Gregory said. “Our path forward lies in our respect for one another and in the God-given dignity we share, offered freely with prayer, patience, kindness, and hope.”

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