Experts: Pence’s GOP primary exit will push other lower-polling candidates to end bids

WASHINGTON (OSV News) — Former Vice President Mike Pence ended his bid for the Republican presidential nomination Oct. 28 after lackluster fundraising and polling. Pence’s departure will put pressure on other low-polling candidates in the GOP field to end their bids as well, political scientists told OSV News.

“It’s become clear to me: This is not my time,” Pence said during remarks at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual gathering in Las Vegas. “So after much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to suspend my campaign for president effective today.”

Pence’s announcement was met with surprise from attendees, who also gave him multiple standing ovations, The Associated Press reported.

In his address, where he also made the case for U.S. support of Israel and against isolationist elements of his party, Pence acknowledged his campaign was “an uphill battle.” Multiple political scientists who spoke with OSV News called his bid for the presidency “doomed from the start.”

Robert Schmuhl, professor emeritus of American studies at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Ind., who critically observes the modern American presidency, told OSV News that Pence “quickly learned that the GOP base has no interest in anyone other than former President Donald Trump.”

“Mike Pence was trying to sell a message that Republican voters don’t want to buy,” Schmuhl said. “The party has evolved — or devolved — from the sunnier days of Ronald Reagan to this new, angrier phase epitomized by Donald Trump and his combative character. In the current environment, it’s almost impossible to imagine a political future for Pence.”

John White, a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America in Washington, told OSV News that Pence’s “sin” with huge swaths of the Republican base “was not to go along with Trump to alter the election results on Jan. 6,” which he had no authority to do, according to constitutional experts.

“Pence’s decision to end his candidacy was inevitable, and the way he ended it was smart,” White said. “His campaign was running into debt, and there were doubts that he would qualify for the next Republican debate. He was showing no traction in Iowa, probably his best chance to emerge from the pack.”

An Oct. 30 NBC/Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey in the early-voting state of Iowa showed Trump with a commanding lead over his Republican rivals. The poll found 43 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers favor Trump as their first-choice candidate, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley tied for second place at 16 percent.

Pence’s departure is not expected to significantly increase support for any of his former rivals, as his poll numbers were low, but it will likely lead to pressure from voters and donors on other low-polling candidates to coalesce around a nominee, the scholars said.

“There will be increased pressure after the next Republican debate for more candidates to drop out,” White said. “South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is performing very poorly as Haley surges somewhat. That should increase the pressure on him to end his candidacy. It’s hard to see anyone benefiting from Pence’s candidacy when he stood at 2% in the polls.”

Pence was initially selected as a running mate by Trump in 2016 to help him appeal to evangelicals concerned about Trump’s lack of an official record on issues including abortion and religious freedom. But nearly eight years later, those same voters have gravitated to Trump.

Geography also presented some relevant history for Pence, White suggested.

“Indiana is the land of vice presidents, that’s where six called home,” White said. “None ever became president.”

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