Data-driven campaign behind abortion ballot measure that defied national trend, strategist says

WASHINGTON (OSV News) — Voters in seven of 10 states with ballot referendums on abortion voted to codify abortion as a right in their state constitution, but three states defied that trend, marking the first victories on such measures for pro-life activists since the U.S. Supreme Court issued its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in June 2022.

One political strategist credited a data-driven campaign in one of the three states in which the pro-life movement had success.

In the same election that saw former President Donald Trump elected to another term in the White House, voters approved most of the referendums to expand legal protections for abortion in Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Nevada, Missouri, and related measures in Maryland and New York. But Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota rejected such measures, defying a trend from elections in 2022 and 2023.

Jeanne Mancini, president of the March for Life, told OSV News that the group “applauds the people of Florida, South Dakota and Nebraska for seeing through an onslaught of well-funded lies and rejecting the radical, destructive abortion ballot initiatives thus protecting women, families, and the unborn in the states.”

“Through these three victories, it’s clear that when voters know the truth about dangerous and far-reaching abortion amendments appearing on their ballots, they reject them wholeheartedly,” she said.

Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of SBA Pro-Life America, which works to elect candidates who oppose abortion to public office, said in a statement that the group celebrates “the lives that will be saved with the defeat of pro-abortion ballot measures in Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota.”

These three states, Dannenfelser said, “have disrupted abortion activists’ track record, showing the path forward is to fight for life following the examples of Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Pete Ricketts and Rep. Dusty Johnson.”

“When GOP leaders engage extreme abortion ballot measures fail because they are exposed for what they are and fear-mongering lies are refuted,” she said, adding, “If the playing field is evened by pro-life elected officials fighting back, life wins. Abortion activists’ lies do not prevail when Republicans devote money and messaging to the truth. Misinformation about pregnant women’s ability to receive emergency care in Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota did not take root as state health departments increased awareness on ‘life of the mother’ exceptions. The pro-life campaigns in these states had the resources to stay on offense to expose the radical implications of all-trimester abortion and the elimination of parental rights.”

But activists who advocate for choice on abortion pointed to a higher number of states that voted in favor of their measures and also argued that a majority of Floridians — 57.2 percent — voted in favor of adding abortion protections to that state’s constitution, although the measure came short of the 60 percent threshold it requires for passage.

Alexis McGill Johnson, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood Action Fund, argued in a statement that abortion “is powerful and popular.”

“The American people do not want politicians making their health care decisions,” she said. “In poll after poll, voters said abortion mattered to them — mattered in their lives and mattered in the voting booth. In Missouri, Colorado, New York, Maryland, Arizona, Montana, Nevada, and Florida — the majority of voters were clear and unequivocal: people are dying. People are suffering. Fix this.”

Trump, McGill Johnson argued, “ran from his record and said he would not ban abortion nationwide.”

“Planned Parenthood Action Fund is going to hold him to that every day for the next four years,” she said. “This is not over. We have never backed down from a fight — and we won’t, ever. We are going to win our rights back — state by state, ballot by ballot. We’re not done.”

In Nebraska, the state’s 12-week abortion ban will remain in effect after Initiative 434, which proposed limiting abortion after the first trimester, received more “For” votes than its competing Initiative 439, which would have codified a constitutional right to abortion.

Jessica Flanagain, a partner at Axiom Strategies and a political consultant who worked in support of the pro-life initiative, argued their effort — which she said was data-driven and responsive to voter concerns about women’s health and safety — was successful in part because “we did a lot of polling and a lot of data analysis, a lot of modeling, and we were very, very disciplined.”

“We knew that where people’s hearts and minds were in Nebraska was really right around 12 weeks, and we feel like if we’re going to do better than that in terms of protecting life, it’s going to require us to change some hearts and minds first,” Flanagain told OSV News.

The contrasting initiatives in Nebraska, Flanagain said, allowed voters to “see it on the ballot themselves” that a vote in support of the pro-life initiative would leave in place the state’s 12-week restriction rather than an outright ban as in some other states.

“If you can just put it on the ballot, you don’t have to tell them, they see it themselves,” she said.

Flanagain said following the Dobbs decision, many voters hold a “cognitive dissonance about the life issue.”

“You can look at polling trends that are done by outside pollsters over the years, where people increasingly believe that abortion is murder, but they also increasingly believe that it’s a right,” she said, pointing to the red state’s acceptance of a 12-week restriction while other red states rejected six-week restrictions.

“We really do have to go out and win hearts and minds,” she said.

In a statement, the three bishops of the Nebraska Catholic Conference — Archbishop George J. Lucas of Omaha and Bishops James D. Conley of Lincoln and Joseph G. Hanefeldt of Grand Island — said they are “overjoyed at the defeat of Initiative 439 and the success of Initiative 434.”

“Nebraskans have sent a clear message to the rest of our nation: Nebraska is a pro-life state that will stand up for its most vulnerable citizens,” they said. “We are grateful for the thousands of Nebraskans who worked tirelessly to ensure that their neighbors understood Initiative 439’s flaws. Their dedication and hard work are reflected in this victory, and we rejoice with them.”

They added that the church reaffirms “our longstanding commitment to every mother, father, child, and family in our state, to work for their support, and to be, in the words of Pope Francis, ‘islands of mercy in a sea of indifference.’ We call on every Nebraskan to join us in this mission of mercy, love, and unyielding resolve.”

Conversely, in Maryland, voters approved a ballot measure to add “reproductive freedom” — which it defines as inclusive of abortion — to that state’s Declaration of Rights. Jenny Kraska, executive director of the Maryland Catholic Conference, said in a statement that the passage of that measure was “a painful moment in Maryland history and one we believe future generations will look back upon with deep regret and bewilderment.”

“Even before this vote, abortion was legal in Maryland for anyone, any reason and at any time,” Kraska said. “This vote has made it more difficult for our state to enact any safeguards for women’s health and to respond to changing information and needs. This is deeply troubling and should concern all residents.

“Through our hearts, prayers, parishes and ministries, we remain firmly committed to walking with women and their children during and after pregnancy. We remain committed to advocating for policies and laws that cherish life and address the root causes that lead to abortion,” she said.

In 2020, the CDC found that 80.9 percent of abortions were performed prior to nine weeks gestation, with 93.1 percent of all procedures prior to 13 weeks gestation.

The Catholic Church teaches that all human life is sacred from conception to natural death, and as such, opposes direct abortion. After the Dobbs decision, church officials in the U.S. have reiterated the church’s concern for both mother and child and called to strengthen available support for those living in poverty or other causes that can push women toward having an abortion.

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